2018 NFL Playoffs Predictions

I've watched a total of one complete NFL game this year, so I look forward to seeing how incorrect my annual "bracket" can be. I do have a decent idea of what's going on in the league, thanks to satirical sports youtube channels, so I'm only moderately uninformed. Anyway, here's my ms paint bracket (RIP ms paint):

Here are my rankings for teams in terms of how likely they are to win the Super Bowl:

12: Tennessee
11: Buffalo
10: Jacksonville
9: Kansas City
8: Carolina
7: Philadelphia
6: New Orleans
5: Los Angeles
4: Atlanta
3: Minnesota
2: New England
1: Pittsburgh

And here are the matchup analyses for the Wild Card round:

5 Tennessee (9-7) at 4 Kansas City (10-6)

The Titans just don't seem that good, and definitely benefited from a weak AFC, outside of two teams (which, lets be real here, are the only two teams with a chance to win the conference). Tennessee got to play in the debatably weakest division in the league, going 5-1 in division with their two most notable wins coming against Jacksonville. Of course, their out of division record was a less than stellar 4-6, including some embarrassing losses to the Steelers and Cardinals. They won their Week 17 matchup against a stumbling Jacksonville team to book their ticket, but still enter the playoffs going 1-3 in their last 4 games. For God's sake, they had to go to overtime to beat the 0-16 Browns in a game where neither team reached the end zone. Marcus Mariota seems to have regressed from last season where he showed a ton of promise, and the defense is streaky, sometimes looking incredible and other times looking like swiss cheese. Their matchup against Kansas City should be interesting; Kareem Hunt is obviously their breakout star, but Tennessee's run defense has been their strongest point this season, ranking in the top 5 in the league in TDs, yards allowed, and yards/carry. On the other hand, against the boring, consistent Alex Smith who has great weapons in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, their 25th ranked pass defense could just get mulched. Kansas City's defense is also pretty abysmal, but against Tennessee's thoroughly mediocre offense led by the 14 TD / 17 INT Marcus Mariota, I don't see it coming into play too much. I hope the winner of this game has fun getting their asses kicked by New England.

Prediction: 27-13 Kansas City


6 Buffalo (9-7) at 3 Jacksonville (10-6)

Buffalo is, by many metrics, the worst team to make the playoffs in several years, but I did give them the slight edge over Tennessee because they have the underdog story and also LeSean McCoy is a beast that basically carried them to being average, which I guess is the baseline for making the playoffs in the AFC this year. I'm rooting for Buffalo because of their story and also because #Sacksonville is the dumbest catchphrase from a pro sports team I've heard in my life. Unfortunately, #Sacksonville probably does have the best defense in the league, but thankfully their quarterback is Blake Bortles. These teams are actually pretty similar, being hard-nosed teams with mediocre quarterbacks that are getting carried by Pro-Bowl running backs. Jacksonville just does what Buffalo does but better, so barring some sort of monster 200 yard game from LeSean McCoy it looks like Jacksonville has this one sewn up. Blake Bortles is going to have more playoff wins than Matthew Stafford. Let that sink in.

Prediction: 13-7 Jacksonville


6 Atlanta (10-6) at 3 Los Angeles (11-5)

I'm a big fan of both these teams and think they're both capable of competing with anyone. I'm not actually a supporter of the Rams (FeelsChargersMan), but Jared Goff had a great breakout season and Todd Gurley was the one of the best RBs in the league. This team is really fun to watch, and despite their middling defense could make some noise, especially if they get to play against the Wentz-less Eagles next round. Let's not write off Atlanta, though, who has a chip on their shoulder after being turned into a meme in last year's Super Bowl. Matt Ryan has seemed a little off all season, but he's a hardened veteran who I'm confident will pull it together when it matters most. You can never count out a team with Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman who have had "off years" by their standards, but are great players who should play a big role if the Falcons make a run. It also could be worth noting that LA got to rest its starters in the last game of the regular season, but this could come back to hurt them as Atlanta gained a ton of momentum by winning their win and in against a good Panthers team that actually had something to play for. This game should be a shootout and I think will depend on whose defense can step up and get a stop with the game on the line. I give the slight edge to Atlanta's run defense, who ranked top 10 in the league and should be able to relatively contain Todd Gurley. I think this'll be the closest and most fun game of the first round.

Prediction: 41-38 Atlanta


5 Carolina at 4 New Orleans

We don't need to speculate much for this one, as New Orleans has beaten Carolina fairly handily twice this season. Carolina has a more impressive out of division record, with wins against the Patriots and Vikings, but the Saints have proven twice that they are a tough matchup for them. This is yet another matchup between two similar teams, with good defenses and a two headed rushing attack that can overwhelm a defense. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara each hitting 1500 total yards on the season is pretty impressive and shows just how much they can shred a defense, even one with as great a front 7 as Carolina. Ultimately, this should come down to the quarterback matchup, and Cam Newton has had a pretty bad season, throwing a lot of interceptions and having less than 60% completion rate. On the other hand, Drew Brees has been his consistent self even at 38 years old, throwing for a remarkable 72% completion rate and the second fewest picks in the league. This should be another close one, but I give a slight edge to Drew Brees and his postseason experience.

Prediction: 27-21 New Orleans


I look forward to being very incorrect, and stay tuned for my Rivals of Ixalan Limited Set Review: Part Blue later today.

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