The Dodgers' 2017 Offseason So Far
So the winter meetings in Florida have come and gone and the Dodgers, despite being in the midst of one of the most chaotic offseasons in recent memory have remained relatively quiet. They made plays at Shohei Ohtani and Giancarlo Stanton, but neither worked out, even though the Stanton deal seemed like a perfect fit in theory. So where should the Dodgers go from here? As shown by their trade with the Braves yesterday, there's two possible directions they could go. They traded Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, and Charlie Culberson, along with a few million dollars to Atlanta for Matt Kemp. This trade is a massive step in the right direction, as they net $28 million from the deal, putting them under the luxury tax maximum and freeing money for moves this offseason. Kemp is likely to be flipped or sent on assignment, but getting rid of Gonzalez, Kazmir, and McCarthy's huge contracts is a boon as these three players were injured or ineffective for most of the season. We can now look at some of the needs the Dodgers have this offseason and how they can address them.
The interesting scenario here is that, winning the pennant last year, the Dodgers are obviously in "win now" mode, but having the highest payroll in the league comes with problems. Their payroll, however, is unique in the sense that a lot of their money is not tied up in their most irreplaceable players. Looking at the top 9 position players by offensive wins above replacement from last season, the only one on a star player contract is a deserving Justin Turner.
Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, and Austin Barnes, who will certainly be key pieces of the organization going forward, are all on steals of contracts for the time being, making right now the time to push for a World Series title. The emergence of Austin Barnes allows for Yasmani Grandal and his contract to be dealt away. Logan Forsythe was resigned to a $9 million contract, which allows free agent Chase Utley to leave without consequence. The opening day lineup is likely to look something like this at this point:
Assuming an order of something like:
1. Taylor
2. Seager
3. Turner
4. Bellinger
5. Puig
6. Forsythe
7. LF Platoon
8. Barnes
9. Pitcher
That is a terrifying lineup that changes essentially nothing from the lineup that was one game from winning the world series. The most obvious potential room for improvement is the Left Field platoon, but with Stanton and Ohtani off the market it looks unlikely to make any significant upgrade, and both Hernandez and Pederson were excellent in the playoffs last season. There are talks circulating about potentially signing Andrew McCutchen, but I wouldn't count on them, and in his declining state he likely would not be worth the contract. Left Field is also an ideal place for star prospect Alex Verdugo to potentially come up this season. In my eyes, I do not believe position player upgrades are necessary, although next season is a different story, as we'll talk about later.
Let's now take a look at the pitching staff, which was one of the best in the league last season but is being threatened by free agency. The lights out setup man Brandon Morrow was lost to the Cubs in free agency, and lefty specialist and former Pirates closer Tony Watson who was on a one year deal is also eligible to take his talents to the highest bidder. And of course, one of the biggest prizes of this free agent class is Yu Darvish, the starter who the Dodgers acquired on a one year deal at the deadline this year. With yet another star prospect in Walker Buehler likely to start at the back end of the rotation this year, and the flexibility of Hyun-jin Ryu to move from starter to long reliever and vice versa, starting pitching is currently not as much a need. Assuming the Dodgers do not keep Darvish, the projected opening week rotation will probably look something like
1. Kershaw
2. Hill
3. Wood
4. Maeda
5. Ryu/Buehler
While the Dodgers have the space on the payroll to make a move at keeping Yu Darvish, I do not believe it is necessary, and it would be beneficial to keep the space to make a move for a starter at the deadline if Buehler doesn't pan out. However, with the loss of Morrow, Watson, and McCarthy, bullpen arms should be a priority. The most notable relief free agents this year like Wade Davis and Greg Holland are obvious passes while the Dodgers have a top 3 closer in Kenley Jansen, so we're gonna have to look a little deeper for good fits. With Ross Stripling liable to effectively eat up innings and the possible transition of Kenta Maeda or Hyun-jin Ryu to the bullpen, a long reliever doesn't need to be a priority, so we're looking for situational lefties and setup men. They could in theory go after a closer like Wade Davis to convert to a setup man, but that kind of money would be a premium especially considering next year's free agent class. They could also ease Walker Buehler in as a setup man, but as a starter his whole minor league career, a high stress role like setup man could be challenging. Julio Urias could be the answer, but he is young and coming off an injury, so he would be unlikely to start the season in the role. If the Dodger's cannot sign a new face, I'll be looking for increased innings from Tony Cingrani, a midseason acquisition from the Reds last season, potentially into setup man. He could also take over situational lefty duties. Tom Koehler was also recently signed from the Toronto, who should play a role in the upcoming season. The market for outside relievers is so volatile I don't want to make any predictions, but if I had to I'd point to Drew Storen or Fernando Abad as potentially good fits to look for.
In my opinion, the best move going forward would be for the Dodgers to retain the core from last season that took them so far and try to shed as much cap space as possible to make a move at the headliners for next year's free agent class. In theory, their lineup, rotation, and bullpen should be enough to make the playoffs, although with the rise of the Rockies and Diamondbacks, and maybe even the Giants with an even year coming up, nothing is a guarantee. However, if the Dodgers keep space free to make a 1 year signing at the deadline to address their needs going into the end of the regular season and the postseason, like they did with Darvish this season, they can be more flexible to their potential needs and have a chance at the biggest free agent signing maybe in history, with Bryce Harper entering his prime as a free agent after next season. The Dodgers should be in win now mode, and they are, but this is certainly not the end all be all year for them, especially with the youth of the core their miraculous farm season has raised in the last 5 years. In my eyes, if the Dodgers have a good season and the Nationals make yet another early playoffs exit, the Dodgers are the clear front runners for Harper next season, and that is where they should be looking. Unfortunately, due to Justin Turner, a go at Manny Machado or Josh Donaldson seems unlikely, but even failing getting Harper, a big name starter like Dallas Keuchel could be an addition. Last year was just the start for the Dodgers, and with their current money situation and young core I'd look for them to be good for a long time.
The interesting scenario here is that, winning the pennant last year, the Dodgers are obviously in "win now" mode, but having the highest payroll in the league comes with problems. Their payroll, however, is unique in the sense that a lot of their money is not tied up in their most irreplaceable players. Looking at the top 9 position players by offensive wins above replacement from last season, the only one on a star player contract is a deserving Justin Turner.
1. Taylor
2. Seager
3. Turner
4. Bellinger
5. Puig
6. Forsythe
7. LF Platoon
8. Barnes
9. Pitcher
That is a terrifying lineup that changes essentially nothing from the lineup that was one game from winning the world series. The most obvious potential room for improvement is the Left Field platoon, but with Stanton and Ohtani off the market it looks unlikely to make any significant upgrade, and both Hernandez and Pederson were excellent in the playoffs last season. There are talks circulating about potentially signing Andrew McCutchen, but I wouldn't count on them, and in his declining state he likely would not be worth the contract. Left Field is also an ideal place for star prospect Alex Verdugo to potentially come up this season. In my eyes, I do not believe position player upgrades are necessary, although next season is a different story, as we'll talk about later.
Let's now take a look at the pitching staff, which was one of the best in the league last season but is being threatened by free agency. The lights out setup man Brandon Morrow was lost to the Cubs in free agency, and lefty specialist and former Pirates closer Tony Watson who was on a one year deal is also eligible to take his talents to the highest bidder. And of course, one of the biggest prizes of this free agent class is Yu Darvish, the starter who the Dodgers acquired on a one year deal at the deadline this year. With yet another star prospect in Walker Buehler likely to start at the back end of the rotation this year, and the flexibility of Hyun-jin Ryu to move from starter to long reliever and vice versa, starting pitching is currently not as much a need. Assuming the Dodgers do not keep Darvish, the projected opening week rotation will probably look something like
1. Kershaw
2. Hill
3. Wood
4. Maeda
5. Ryu/Buehler
While the Dodgers have the space on the payroll to make a move at keeping Yu Darvish, I do not believe it is necessary, and it would be beneficial to keep the space to make a move for a starter at the deadline if Buehler doesn't pan out. However, with the loss of Morrow, Watson, and McCarthy, bullpen arms should be a priority. The most notable relief free agents this year like Wade Davis and Greg Holland are obvious passes while the Dodgers have a top 3 closer in Kenley Jansen, so we're gonna have to look a little deeper for good fits. With Ross Stripling liable to effectively eat up innings and the possible transition of Kenta Maeda or Hyun-jin Ryu to the bullpen, a long reliever doesn't need to be a priority, so we're looking for situational lefties and setup men. They could in theory go after a closer like Wade Davis to convert to a setup man, but that kind of money would be a premium especially considering next year's free agent class. They could also ease Walker Buehler in as a setup man, but as a starter his whole minor league career, a high stress role like setup man could be challenging. Julio Urias could be the answer, but he is young and coming off an injury, so he would be unlikely to start the season in the role. If the Dodger's cannot sign a new face, I'll be looking for increased innings from Tony Cingrani, a midseason acquisition from the Reds last season, potentially into setup man. He could also take over situational lefty duties. Tom Koehler was also recently signed from the Toronto, who should play a role in the upcoming season. The market for outside relievers is so volatile I don't want to make any predictions, but if I had to I'd point to Drew Storen or Fernando Abad as potentially good fits to look for.
In my opinion, the best move going forward would be for the Dodgers to retain the core from last season that took them so far and try to shed as much cap space as possible to make a move at the headliners for next year's free agent class. In theory, their lineup, rotation, and bullpen should be enough to make the playoffs, although with the rise of the Rockies and Diamondbacks, and maybe even the Giants with an even year coming up, nothing is a guarantee. However, if the Dodgers keep space free to make a 1 year signing at the deadline to address their needs going into the end of the regular season and the postseason, like they did with Darvish this season, they can be more flexible to their potential needs and have a chance at the biggest free agent signing maybe in history, with Bryce Harper entering his prime as a free agent after next season. The Dodgers should be in win now mode, and they are, but this is certainly not the end all be all year for them, especially with the youth of the core their miraculous farm season has raised in the last 5 years. In my eyes, if the Dodgers have a good season and the Nationals make yet another early playoffs exit, the Dodgers are the clear front runners for Harper next season, and that is where they should be looking. Unfortunately, due to Justin Turner, a go at Manny Machado or Josh Donaldson seems unlikely, but even failing getting Harper, a big name starter like Dallas Keuchel could be an addition. Last year was just the start for the Dodgers, and with their current money situation and young core I'd look for them to be good for a long time.
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